The onset of autumn in India also marks the start of the festival season. Beginning with Ganesh Chaturthi in September, the Hindu festival season continues until early November and ends with Diwali. The season is marked by school and professional holidays, vacations and shopping sprees. During the holiday season, many e-commerce companies offer attractive discounts to discourage shoppers from heading to physical stores. In addition, the season creates new job opportunities.

In 2020 and 2021, the festival season has been moderate due to the pandemic and associated restrictions. The season that customers and suppliers are looking forward to has passed without much fanfare. But the data shows that this time around Indians were more confident about the economy. And with fewer restrictions, public mobility has improved, boosting air travel and retail sales.

Consumer enthusiasm

The share of urban consumers pessimistic about India’s economy continued to decline in September 2022 as COVID-19 cases and related restrictions were lower, according to the RBI’s Consumer Confidence Index.

Also, in September 2022, CMIE’s Consumer Pyramids Household Survey asked households about their financial situation and their ability to buy goods such as furniture, televisions and cars compared to a year ago. The results were captured as a consumer confidence index (base period: September-December 2015 = 100). The score in September 2022 was 80, significantly higher than 54.7 a year ago and 42 in September 2020. Although the score has yet to reach pre-pandemic levels (108 in September 2019) , consumer sentiment has improved significantly from the first two pandemic years.

Vehicle sales

During the festival period, families usually have more disposable income and spend on their most anticipated purchases. Many companies also give bonuses to employees. In addition, banks offer special offers on auto and motorcycle loans during the holiday season. This translates into an increase in demand for vehicles.

Data from the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations of India shows that after two seasons of dull festivals, sales of 2022 season vehicles have surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Between September 26 and October 5 (the Navaratri season), vehicle sales reached nearly 5.4 lakh in 2022. The figures were 3.4 lakh and 4.2 lakh in 2021 and 2020, respectively. During this period in 2019, 4.66 lakh vehicles were sold.

Mobility and air travel

With most lockdown-related movement restrictions lifted, public mobility is returning to pre-pandemic levels. In particular, the increase in mobility was more pronounced this year than during the last two festival periods.

According to Google’s Mobility Index, between the last week of September and the first week of October this year, visits to grocery stores, pharmacies, parks, and shopping and entertainment centers peaked during the post period. -pandemic, while visits to the workplace have decreased.

The index measures visits to various locations keeping the baseline (median value) as a five-week period from January 3 to February 6, 2020. Thus, a positive value indicates an increase in visits over the baseline period and a value negative indicates a decrease.

From the last week of September to the first week of October this year, park visits were up 60% to 80% from baseline. However, during the corresponding period in 2021, park visits ranged from -3% to 1%. In 2020, visits to parks were 45% below the baseline.

Similarly, retail and leisure visits increased by 10% to 20% from baseline in 2022. However, over the corresponding period in 2021, these visits ranged from -7% to -12 %. In 2020, these visits were around 40% below the baseline.

The number of people traveling by air is also approaching pre-pandemic levels. Over one million passengers flew on domestic flights in India in August 2022. Due to movement restrictions and strict COVID-19 protocols, only 28 lakh passengers had taken domestic flights in August 2020. And while the number increased to 65 lakh in 2021, it was still only half the number of flyers in August 2019 (1.2 crore).

Despite high inflation, people’s enthusiasm for this season may suggest two things. Either pent-up demand and lack of travel in the first two years of the pandemic have led to “revenge shopping and travel” in 2022, or there is a real recovery in the economy with much better income levels this time.

Fortnightly figures

Retail inflation in India was 7.41% in September, after 7% in August. Retail price inflation in September was the highest since April, when price inflation accelerated to a nearly eight-year high of 7.79%. This is the ninth month that inflation has exceeded the upper 6% tolerance threshold mandated by the RBI. Food inflation rose sharply to 8.41% last month, the biggest increase in 22 months.

Nearly 3.15 lakh Right to Information (RTI) complaints and appeals are pending with 26 Information Commissions across India. According to a report by Satark Nagrik Sangathan, the number of pending appeals and complaints in 2019 was 2.18 lakh. In 2020, the number jumped to 2.33 lakh and in 2021, the number was 2.86 lakh. The highest number of cases was pending in Maharashtra with 99,722, followed by Uttar Pradesh with 44,482, Karnataka with 30,358, Central Information Commission with 26,724 and Bihar with 21 346.

6.8% is India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal year, following growth of 8.7% for the fiscal year that ended March 31, according to figures published in the Outlook report. IMF October 2022 World Economy: Tackling the Cost of Living Crisis. The growth rate for this year for India has been revised down by 0.6 percentage point from the June 2022 IMF forecast, following weaker output in the second quarter and a moderate external demand, the IMF said. The forecast for next year remains unchanged at 6.1%.

India ranked 107th out of 121 countries analyzed in the Global Hunger Index 2022. With a score of 29, the country falls into the “serious” category of the hunger meter. The country ranks behind Sri Lanka (64), Nepal (81), Bangladesh (84) and Pakistan (99), with Afghanistan being the only country in South Asia to lag behind India in the list. The Global Hunger Index (GHI) is a comprehensive tool for measuring and tracking hunger at global, regional and national levels. GHI scores are based on the values ​​of four component indicators – undernutrition, child stunting, child wasting and child mortality. Countries are divided into five hunger categories based on their score, which are ‘low’, ‘moderate’, ‘severe’, ‘alarming’ and ‘extremely alarming’.

Nearly 70% of wild populations of monitored animal species have fallen in the past 50 years according to a report by the World Wildlife Fund for Nature (WWF). In regions rich in biodiversity such as Latin America and the Caribbean, the figure for animal population loss is as high as 94%. The report found that the main drivers of wildlife loss are habitat degradation due to development and agriculture, logging, introduction of invasive species, pollution, climate change and diseases.

Chart of the week

The graph shows the monthly energy inflation rate in the European Union since 2010. Energy-related inflation in Europe began to rise after the war and has accelerated to over 40% in recent years. last months. While headline inflation and food-related inflation have hit 10-year highs in recent days, their increase pales in comparison to rising energy prices. The impact of rising energy costs was felt in all European countries.

Read more about the spike in inflation in Europe since the Ukrainian invasion here.

Backtrack

State-owned oil marketing companies IOC, HPCL and BPCL may for the first time post the second consecutive quarterly loss with a combined loss of ₹21,270 crore in July-September as they held down gasoline and diesel prices below the cost of production for a long time. time, according to a PTI report. This explains why, despite a drop in international fuel prices, retail fuel prices at petrol stations in India have remained the same in India to compensate for the losses of oil marketing companies in previous periods. The data point titled “Why Gasoline Prices in India Have Remained Unchanged Despite Falling Crude Oil Costs” released on September 1, 2022, explained why retail gasoline prices remained unchanged at gas stations. service while crude prices (Indian basket) had fallen by around $20/barrel.

Aviation company CAPA has estimated that India’s domestic airline industry could suffer losses of over $1.7 billion this fiscal year. IndiGo and SpiceJet have already reported losses of ₹1,064.30 crore and ₹789 crore respectively in the April to June quarter of the current financial year, according to PTI reports. Through data points titled “Despite higher passenger numbers in November, the aviation sector is not yet out of the woods” published on December 26, 2021 and “Despite the increase in the number of flyers, the Indian airlines are struggling to make a profit” published on April 1, 2022, Hindu Data team had explained why Indian airlines are struggling to make a profit despite the easing of movement restrictions leading to an increase in the number of travellers.

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