On Monday, June 26, 2023, S&P Global Ratings maintained India’s GDP growth forecast at 6%, saying it would be the fastest growing economy among Asia-Pacific countries. .
GDP growth forecasts for the current fiscal year and next fiscal year were unchanged from the March forecast, in part due to domestic resilience.
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“We are seeing the fastest growth at around 6% in India, Vietnam and the Philippines,” S&P Global Ratings said in its quarterly Asia-Pacific economic update.
“The medium-term growth outlook remains relatively strong. Emerging economies in Asia remain among the fastest growing in our global growth outlook through 2026,” said Louis Kuijs, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific at S&P Global Ratings.
S&P said retail inflation is expected to decline to 5% this financial year from 6.7%, and the RBI is not expected to cut interest rates until early next year.
“Inflation will remain below 5%”
“In India, assuming normal monsoons, we expect headline consumer inflation to decline to 5% in FY2024 from 6.7%. demand moderation will lower fuel inflation and core inflation, respectively.
“Inflation and rate hike cycles have peaked, in our view. But we expect the Reserve Bank of India to cut rates only in early 2024 as they want to see inflation increase to 4% – the center of its target range,” Kuijs said.
S&P lowered growth forecast for China to 5.2% from 5.5% for 2023.
“For the rest of the region, we left it broadly unchanged, in part due to domestic resilience,” S&P said.